In the coming years, oil prices will remain at a high level due to the redistribution of supplies on world markets; even a possible decrease in demand will not affect its value.
This forecast is given by Wood Mackenzie analysts, Interfax reports.
“Lower demand will ease market tensions, but oil prices will remain high: the new and less efficient trade equilibrium means prices will remain at current levels before going down. Going forward, they will continue to be higher than we thought before the war. At the same time, the price per barrel of Brent will roll back to $85-90 only by 2025, while oil refining margins in Europe will remain high until 2030», Wood Mackenzie said in a statement.
Analysts note that the established high oil prices are pushing global demand down. According to their forecast, by 2030 it may be reduced by 2 million barrels per day.
Wood Mackenzie also notes that Russia, despite Western sanctions, was able to redistribute oil supplies, convincing buyers in other countries, primarily in India.
«A direct ban on imports from Russia to the EU only accelerates the redistribution of trade in oil and petroleum products, which has already begun», the report says.
According to analysts, the redistribution of supplies may be completed without extreme consequences for oil supply and prices by the end of the year.